Anthropic and OpenAI are preparing to go public, with Anthropic potentially debuting by October and OpenAI following later, at reported valuations of $2 trillion and around $1 trillion respectively.
However, both companies face a fundamental profitability challenge: while Anthropic has more than doubled its revenue to $11.6 billion and reportedly achieved a small operating profit, and OpenAI generated $6.7 billion in the June quarter, both continue burning significant cash and seeking valuations that vastly exceed their actual earnings, making them riskier propositions than comparable public companies like SpaceX.
What happened
Anthropic could debut by October at a reported valuation of at least $2 trillion, while OpenAI may go public later, potentially next year. Both companies are exploring public offerings amid investor appetite for high-growth AI stocks.
Why it matters
OpenAI generated $6.7 billion in revenue for the June quarter but moved further away from profitability with an increasing loss; Anthropic more than doubled revenue to $11.6 billion and reportedly achieved a small operating profit, but faces the same core problem—both companies are seeking valuations around $1 trillion or higher while profits remain minimal and cash burn is likely high. This mirrors the SpaceX pattern: the space company briefly soared above $2 trillion after going public, only to crash below its IPO price, a painful lesson for early investors.
What to watch
The AI chatbot market is shaping up as a highly intensive arms race with greater competition looming, leaving no guarantee either company will sustain long-term success at such elevated valuations.
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The prospect of Anthropic and OpenAI going public arrives in a climate where growth investors have shown appetite for highly risky stocks at steep valuations. SpaceX recently demonstrated both sides of this bet: the company briefly soared above a $2 trillion market cap after its public debut, only to crash below its IPO price, a cautionary tale for early investors. What distinguishes SpaceX from Anthropic and OpenAI is that it already leads a profitable, established aerospace industry while Starlink generates revenue and operates profitably; by contrast, the two AI companies are chasing valuations of $1–2 trillion while their profitability remains elusive or minimal. Anthropic's recent milestone—more than doubling revenue to $11.6 billion and achieving a small operating profit—shows relative progress, yet both companies face the same structural headwind: cash burn remains high, and their ability to justify current valuations depends entirely on a path to sustained profitability in an increasingly competitive chatbot market. The broader AI arms race offers no guarantee either company will emerge a clear winner or maintain pricing power over time, making the valuation risk acute relative to the profitability they have demonstrated.
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