What happened
A tester ran Kronos, a candlestick-only foundation model accepted at AAAI 2026, on 400 hours of BTC/USDT hourly data and predicted 120 hours ahead, scoring 46.7%–50.0% directional accuracy.
Why it matters
On this single 120-hour window, the model showed no statistically meaningful directional signal — its hit rate did not clearly beat a coin toss — so its output alone is not a basis for investment decisions.
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The test used only public Binance REST API data, with no paid API keys and no GPU required, and the workflow — data preparation, tokenizer, model inference — ran without installation trouble on Python 3.12 with the README's dependency versions. Kronos-mini predicted 24 hours from 200 hours of lookback in 0.3 seconds on CPU, and Kronos-small's 400-to-120-hour run completed in about 20 seconds on CPU, suggesting deployment barriers are low for experimentation.
The gap between price-level fit and directional skill is the central finding. A MAPE of 2.33% looks close, but it reflects natural tracking of the market's range rather than a directional signal usable for investment decisions. The tester's own disclaimer applies: the output is one probabilistic sample, and results from one symbol and one period may differ elsewhere.
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