Lam Research at peak valuation amid AI chip-equipment boom

What happened

Lam Research, which makes machinery for semiconductor manufacturing, posted its third consecutive record revenue quarter at $5.8 billion（約9300億円）, up 24% year-over-year, driven by rising complexity in AI chips that require more of the company's deposition and etch equipment.

Why it matters

The stock has soared 326% over the past year and now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 70.6—nearly triple the S&P 500's multiple of 24.6. This premium valuation assumes the AI buildout will sustain for years; if it proves cyclical instead, Lam's stock has historically fallen much harder than the broader market (down 57% in 2022 versus the S&P 500's 25% drop).

What to watch

Gross margins are guided to 50.5% for the next quarter. The body flagged that customer down payments have hit a four-year low and China revenue is expected to decline—potential signs the current supply-constrained environment is moderating—making margin sustainability the key indicator of whether the AI demand is truly durable or beginning to plateau.