Qualcomm stock target $226.05, 41% upside seen

The market is currently pricing Qualcomm like a handset company facing a slow Apple exit, but the analysis from 24/7 Wall St. reveals a different story. Fiscal Q3 revenue of $9.947 billion beat consensus by roughly 2.84%, though non-GAAP EPS of $2.21 narrowly missed expectations, ending a six-quarter beat streak. The mix shift is significant: handset revenue fell 20% year over year, while automotive rose 61% to $1.588 billion.

The diversification thesis is supported by CEO Cristiano Amon's target of non-handset revenues growing to $40 billion by fiscal 2029, nearly double the target shared in November 2024. Data center alone is projected to scale from $5 billion in fiscal 2027 to $15 billion in fiscal 2029, backed by two hyperscaler custom silicon wins already in wafer production with revenue starting the December quarter. HBC Gen 1 has taped out, with a first solution launch targeted for mid-2027.

The comparison to Broadcom and Marvell frames the opportunity. Broadcom is the incumbent in hyperscaler custom silicon and sets the valuation ceiling, while Marvell competes head-on for custom ASIC and networking sockets. Qualcomm trades near 18x trailing earnings with an EV/EBITDA of 13, looking meaningfully cheaper on the same data center opportunity. Management expects planned double-digit price increases to restore gross margin to the historical 48% to 50% range.