Bernstein analyst says AI agent demand has pushed chip requirements 'off the charts,' with supply unable to keep pace

NVIDIA reported Q4 FY2026 Data Center revenue of $62.31 billion, up 73.2% year-over-year, with total supply commitments standing at $95.2 billion due to demand visibility outrunning production capacity.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) posted Q1 2026 revenue of $35.90 billion, up 35.13% year-over-year, with advanced nodes (7nm and below) representing 74% of wafer revenue and high-performance computing at 61% of the mix.

Equipment suppliers ASML, Lam Research, and KLA Corporation reported record results; ASML ended 2025 with a $45.06 billion order backlog, and Lam guided the June quarter to roughly $6.60 billion in revenue, driven by AI infrastructure buildout.

Year-to-date stock performance reflects the capacity expansion thesis: NVIDIA up 12.2%, TSMC up 29.95%, ASML up 30.77%, Lam up 45.48%, and KLA up 49.67%.