Meta Q2 earnings miss as AI costs surge; capex raised to $130–145B

Meta Platforms reported its Q2 2026 financial results, showing the familiar pattern of strong top-line growth paired with margin pressure. Revenue reached about US$60.80 billion（約9.7兆円）, up from US$47.52 billion（約7.6兆円） in the same quarter a year earlier—a gain of roughly 28%. However, net income fell sharply to around US$15.85 billion（約2.5兆円） (compared with a higher figure implied by the year-earlier comparison), and diluted earnings per share (EPS) dropped to US$6.18, signaling that the company's bottom-line profitability is under strain.

The primary culprit is Meta's accelerating capital expenditure. The company lifted its 2026 capex guidance to US$130–145 billion and flagged heavier legal and infrastructure spending. This guidance increase underscores a fundamental strategic shift: Meta is investing heavily in AI and data center infrastructure, betting that these assets will drive future returns. To illustrate the commitment, Meta announced a new data center venture in El Paso, Texas—a partnership with BlackRock involving a US$14 billion（約2.2兆円）, 1 gigawatt campus. By using an off-balance-sheet structure, Meta reduces the immediate impact on its free cash flow metrics, but the capital commitment remains substantial and real.

For investors, the earnings report crystallizes a key dilemma. Meta's advertising business continues to grow robustly, demonstrating the resilience of its core franchise. Yet surging AI-related capital expenditures are now the dominant driver of sentiment—serving both as the biggest opportunity and the biggest risk. The company's baseline investment narrative projects revenue of $369.0 billion（約59兆円） and earnings of $111.2 billion（約18兆円） by 2029, assuming 19.7% yearly revenue growth and about a $40.6 billion（約6.5兆円） earnings increase from $70.6 billion（約11兆円） today. At that trajectory, a fair value of $828.80 per share is implied, representing roughly 42% upside from the current price. However, more cautious analysts are assuming lower outcomes: revenue of about US$343.5 billion（約55兆円） and earnings of roughly US$99.8 billion（約16兆円） by 2029. These divergent 2029 forecasts reflect uncertainty about whether Meta's compute monetization strategy—the ability to convert massive AI infrastructure spending into durable revenue and profit growth—will succeed. The stock's 6.6% decline after the earnings miss reflects investor anxiety that the company's heavy AI build-out may not deliver the returns needed to justify the burden on free cash flow and shareholder returns.

Meta's Q2 2026 earnings reveal a widening tension at the heart of its investment thesis. Revenue continues to climb—up roughly 28% year-over-year to about US$60.80 billion（約9.7兆円）—demonstrating that the core advertising business remains resilient. Yet profitability has contracted sharply: net income fell to around US$15.85 billion（約2.5兆円）, and the company has now raised its 2026 capex guidance to US$130–145 billion, signaling that AI infrastructure spending is accelerating rather than moderating. This puts investors in a difficult position: they must believe that Meta's extraordinarily expensive data center and AI model buildout will eventually unlock new revenue streams and justify the near-term margin compression, or they must accept that the company is overinvesting in infrastructure whose returns remain uncertain.

The El Paso data center partnership with BlackRock—a US$14 billion（約2.2兆円）, 1 gigawatt commitment—exemplifies this tension. By structuring the investment off-balance-sheet, Meta gains scale without immediately burdening its cash flow statement, but the underlying capital commitment is real and substantial. The company is doubling down on AI infrastructure at precisely the moment when investors are most skeptical: the earnings miss (driven by cost growth outpacing revenue growth) and the capex guidance hike have already sparked a 6.6% stock decline. Analysts are diverging sharply on what 2029 will look like. The baseline narrative assumes Meta achieves $369.0 billion（約59兆円） revenue and $111.2 billion（約18兆円） earnings by 2029—a 19.7% compound annual revenue growth rate—but more pessimistic observers project only US$343.5 billion（約55兆円） revenue and roughly US$99.8 billion（約16兆円） earnings, suggesting the AI payoff will be weaker. Which forecast prevails may depend less on Meta's execution and more on whether the broader market believes that large-scale AI infrastructure investments can generate durable competitive advantages and profitable new use cases.

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