AI researcher predicts transformative changes within 1-4 years as labs may become autonomous self-improving organizations, with uncertain existential risk outcomes.

Author expects radical AI transformation within 1-4 years, with major AI labs potentially becoming autonomous research organizations focused on developing next-generation models

Initial phase expected to involve AI organizations providing goods and services for capital to fuel self-improvement and resource acquisition loops

Author expresses significant uncertainty about existential risks, viewing both <10% and >90% extinction risk estimates as overconfident

Acknowledges possibility that advanced AIs could remain beneficial and allocate resources toward safety measures based on decision theory