
What happened
New Goldman Sachs analysis finds that currencies of South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia are outperforming those of countries less exposed to US AI spending, as chip exporters convert US dollars back into local currencies.
Why it matters
The strength has partially shielded these economies from inflation pressures hitting other Asian countries, which were worsened by the Iran war choking off fuel imports. Asia's refined fuel imports hit a new low in August.
What to watch
South Korea's August exports rose roughly 70% year-over-year on a surge in memory demand, according to new trade data released Tuesday. This suggests AI-related demand continues to support the region's trade performance.
Summaries like this, every morning.
Goldman Sachs' analysis highlights how US AI spending is reshaping currency markets far from Silicon Valley. South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia export key components for AI systems, and as these manufacturers convert their dollar earnings back into local currencies, their exchange rates strengthen. This gives them a buffer against inflation pressures that other Asian countries face, especially those exacerbated by the Iran war's impact on fuel imports.
The data point about Asia's refined fuel imports hitting a new low in August underscores the region's broader economic strain. Yet the AI-driven export boom, as seen in South Korea's near-70% export growth, suggests a divergence between economies tied to the AI supply chain and those that are not. This dynamic could continue as long as US AI demand remains strong, potentially widening the gap between AI-exporting and non-exporting Asian economies.
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