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Sign up free →Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, valued at $965 billion post-money from its May 2026 Series H-1 round. Prediction-market contracts price the probability of a December 31, 2026 listing at 89.5%, with October 31 at 81% and September 30 at 42.5%.
Databricks and Anduril lag in listing probability: Databricks trades at roughly 41% odds for a 2027 IPO and has not filed confidentially, while Anduril is priced at roughly 7% for a 2027 listing with no draft registration statement. Databricks CEO cited 2026 as a "terrible year to go public," citing capital concentration on OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX debuts.
Amazon recorded $16.80 billion in pretax gains on its Anthropic stake in Q1 2026, and Alphabet recorded $36.91 billion in unrealized equity gains, of which Anthropic is a major component. Catalysts to watch include SEC comment resolution, underwriter selection, and equity-market volatility.
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