ASML nears $700B as AI chip boom fuels trillion-dollar bid

ASML's remarkable rise reflects a fundamental shift in how markets value critical infrastructure for artificial intelligence. As hyperscalers including Google and Amazon escalate spending on AI data centres, demand for the chips that power these systems has soared—and ASML, as the monopoly supplier of EUV lithography equipment, sits at the center of that supply chain. The company's 60% share price gain this year to near a $700 billion（約110兆円） valuation follows "blowout" second-quarter earnings, according to the article, and analyst upgrades have grown ambitious: Barclays, Susquehanna, and Bernstein now target prices above $2,600 per share, implying a $1 trillion（約160兆円） market cap.

Yet the trillion-dollar thesis carries material risk. ASML shares trade at 38 times forecast earnings for 2027, a steep premium relative to TSMC, its largest customer. Investors and analysts acknowledge that this valuation rests on a single key bet: that hyperscaler demand for data-centre chips will not cool. Capital Group, which holds roughly 5% of ASML shares worth $35 billion（約5.6兆円）, frames the opportunity as a "long-term holding" backed by "unique assets and wide moats," yet management and analysts themselves concede that any pullback in hyperscaler spending would "flow through to ASML's earnings." The path to trillion-dollar status thus depends not only on ASML's own execution but also on sustained capital intensity among the tech giants that drive chip demand.