AIToday
AI Business & IndustryThe Verge AIPublished: Sep 30, 2026, 04:00 JST

Palisade Research posts AI extinction warnings

Palisade Research posts AI extinction warnings

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Palisade Research launched a dozen interviews at frominside.ai. Geoffrey Irving called extinction risk 'about a coin flip,' and Neel Nanda put it at 'at least a 10 percent chance.'

  2. Why it matters

    The label 'AI safety' clearly covers a wide range of views, since these interviews, including the 'coin flip' and '10 percent' warnings, don't converge on one solution.

  3. What to watch

    The site pairs segments on whether this is just hype or marketing, and why researchers would work on something they call this dangerous. Watch for how labs respond to their own staff's warnings.

WHO IT HITSThis lands hardest on the AI safety and policy teams at major labs, whose current and former employees are among those speaking on camera. For anyone weighing how much trust to place in safety messaging from those labs, the interviews put specific numbers on the disagreement.

Not sure about something? Ask the AI

Questions and answers are published on this page.

Summaries like this, in your inbox every morning.

Context & Analysis

Palisade Research, which describes itself as a nonprofit studying AIs' capabilities and motivations, gathered the interviews and launched them on frominside.ai. The set includes current and former employees of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, so the warnings come from people with direct ties to the labs building the systems in question. The site also collects segments from multiple speakers on similar topics, including whether this is all just hype or marketing.

Several of those segments address the obvious objection: why would someone work on something they describe as this dangerous? Google's Mary Phuong says, 'I think you absolutely should be suspicious of what I'm saying because I am being paid by the lab.' Neel Nanda's answer is that 'if I did not believe that my work was directly reducing these existential risks, I would quit… These companies are not going to stop making these systems just because I quit.' Those two answers point in different directions — one invites skepticism, the other justifies staying.

What the interviews notably do not offer is a single cohesive solution, even among people who agree the risk is real. That gap is likely what the project is meant to expose: the disagreement is not only about whether AI is dangerous, but about what anyone should do about it. Whether the videos change how labs or their staff handle these warnings may depend less on the numbers cited than on whether the people saying them are seen as representative or as outliers.

FAQ
Where can I watch these interviews?
Palisade Research collected and launched them on frominside.ai. Each video is available in full there.
Who was interviewed?
A dozen AI researchers, including current and former employees at OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Among them are Geoffrey Irving, Neel Nanda, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Mary Phuong.
What did Daniel Kokotajlo say?
He claimed superintelligent AI 'would basically be god-like powerful' and that 'unfortunately we don't know how to control them at all.' He added that this is 'exactly as dangerous as it sounds and must not be allowed to happen.'

AI news that matters for your work, in one minute a day

Pick your industry and the AI tools you use, and get news related to your work every day.

Free · 30 seconds with Google · unsubscribe anytimeWhat is AIToday? →

Ask AI

Ask AI anything about this article. The AI reads this article, earlier AIToday articles, and Wikipedia, and cites its sources. Q&As are published on this page for other readers too.

Questions and answers are published on this page.

Related Articles

Next articleWabi 2.0: Eugenia Kuyda's AI messenger builds apps on demand