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Burry doubles down on Nvidia, Palantir shorts; bets big on Molina Healthcare

Burry doubles down on Nvidia, Palantir shorts; bets big on Molina Healthcare

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Michael Burry, the investor famous for The Big Short, added to his short positions in Nvidia, Palantir, Oracle, and Caterpillar while increasing his stake in Molina Healthcare at $198 per share. He raised his Nvidia bets through put contracts expiring in December 2026 and June 2027 with strikes in the low $100s.

  2. Why it matters

    Burry argues Nvidia's $500 billion financing platform for AI projects mirrors the risky debt dynamics that fueled the 2008 financial crisis, now centered on the AI boom. He views Molina Healthcare as significantly undervalued—the stock has fallen 54% from its March 2024 peak of more than $419—and compares its long-term potential to Geico before Berkshire Hathaway's investment transformed it.

  3. What to watch

    Molina Healthcare was trading around $200 at publication after Burry brought his position back to the size of his largest holdings. His Nvidia puts expire in December 2026 and June 2027, making those dates key markers for how his bearish AI infrastructure thesis plays out.

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Context & Analysis

Burry's latest moves reveal a striking split in his conviction: deep skepticism about the valuation and financing structure of AI infrastructure leaders, coupled with confidence in a beaten-down healthcare stock most investors have overlooked. His comparison of Molina Healthcare to Geico—before Berkshire Hathaway's pivotal investment—signals that he sees the company trading below its intrinsic value, particularly as he notes the political season may favor it. The stock's 54% fall from its March 2024 high suggests the market has priced in significant headwinds, creating what Burry views as an asymmetric opportunity.

On the short side, Burry's concern about Nvidia's $500 billion financing platform touches on a structural vulnerability in the AI boom: the debt mechanics underlying infrastructure investment. By using put contracts rather than direct short selling, Burry caps his downside while maintaining exposure to a decline—a disciplined approach that acknowledges execution risk in timing. His December 2026 and June 2027 expiration dates suggest he is willing to wait years for his thesis to materialize, indicating conviction but not urgency.

FAQ
How much has Molina Healthcare stock fallen?
Molina Healthcare has dropped 54% from its March 2024 peak of more than $419, at one point dipping near $140. At the time of publication, it was trading around $200.
How does Burry express his bearish view on Nvidia without shorting shares directly?
Burry increased his Nvidia puts—contracts expiring in December 2026 and June 2027 with strikes in the low $100s—which give him the right to sell the stock at a predetermined price while limiting his potential losses.
What is Burry's concern about Nvidia's $500 billion funding deal?
Burry has argued that Nvidia's new financing platform is recreating the same risky debt dynamics that added to the 2008 financial crisis, this time centered on the AI boom.
Yahoo Finance AIRead Original Article

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