Amazon Q2 earnings preview: AWS growth, AI spending in focus

Amazon is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results after Thursday's market close. Wall Street expects the company to deliver earnings of $1.81 per share on revenue of approximately $195.97 billion（約31兆円）, positioning the forecast near the midpoint of management's own guidance range of $194 billion（約31兆円） to $199 billion（約32兆円）.

The previous quarter's performance set a high bar. Amazon posted earnings of $2.78 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.73, while revenue climbed 16.6% year over year to $181.5 billion（約29兆円）. AWS, the cloud computing division, was the standout performer, with revenue jumping 28% to $37.6 billion（約6兆円）—the fastest quarterly growth rate in 15 quarters. Operating income reached a record level, though free cash flow declined to $1.2 billion（約1900億円） as the company ramped capital expenditures to $43.2 billion（約6.9兆円）. Management also flagged that second-quarter guidance includes roughly $1 billion（約1600億円） in additional Project Kuiper satellite costs.

Ahead of the report, Wall Street analysts have signaled growing confidence in AWS momentum. Bank of America lifted its AWS growth forecast to 33% from 31%, citing continued AI demand driven by Anthropic workloads and Amazon Bedrock. KeyBanc also raised its price target. The broader consensus remains Strong Buy. Key focus areas for the earnings call include AWS momentum, third-quarter guidance, AI investment plans, and the impact of an earlier Prime Day event on retail sales. Investors will scrutinize whether Amazon increases its capital spending plans as demand for AI infrastructure continues to expand.

Amazon's upcoming earnings report comes at a pivotal moment for the cloud computing industry, with AWS performance emerging as the primary investor focus. The previous quarter's results showed AWS accelerating sharply—a 28% gain to $37.6 billion（約6兆円） in revenue represented the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters—a trend that Bank of America and KeyBanc have both responded to by raising their forecasts and price targets. The acceleration is tied to AI infrastructure demand, specifically through workloads running on Anthropic and Amazon Bedrock, the company's managed AI service.

Capital intensity has become a defining feature of Amazon's current position. Free cash flow fell to $1.2 billion（約1900億円） as capex surged to $43.2 billion（約6.9兆円）, a dynamic that underscores the company's commitment to build out AI and cloud infrastructure. The second-quarter outlook already factors in roughly $1 billion（約1600億円） in additional Project Kuiper satellite costs, signaling that infrastructure investment remains a priority. The key question for investors is whether management will signal further spending acceleration in response to continued AI demand, or maintain current guidance.

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