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Hiroki: AI shock to settle, Nikkei seeks bottom after 6万円 break

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Hiroki: AI shock to settle, Nikkei seeks bottom after 6万円 break

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Monex Securities' Takashi Hiroki said the AI shock will likely calm this week and stocks will seek a bottom, after the Nikkei plunged well below 60,000 on Nov 6.

  2. Why it matters

    Hiroki said the selloff should pause and the market should start looking for a floor, with the AI shock settling for now.

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Context & Analysis

The selloff Hiroki is addressing came after the Democratic victory in the US midterm elections triggered a sharp drop in the Nikkei average, which broke well below 60,000 on Nov 6. His view is that this week the decline should pause and the market should shift to probing for a bottom, with the AI shock settling for now.

Hiroki's reasoning rests on the idea that the US is competing with China on AI development as a matter of national prestige, so US AI development is unlikely to stop. If that view spreads, he expects the market to regain its calm. The week's schedule puts AI-related earnings from SoftBank Group and Fujikura alongside the US consumer price index due Nov 10 Japan time, which he flags as a risk if inflation readings come in high.

FAQ
What caused last week's Nikkei plunge?
The Nikkei average fell sharply after the Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, breaking well below 60,000 on Nov 6.
Why does a higher US consumer price index matter for Japanese AI stocks?
Hiroki said an upside CPI surprise could revive US inflation worries and push long-term yields up again, which would weigh on US AI chip and tech shares and drag Japanese semiconductor stocks down with them.
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