
What happened
Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock returned about 64% over the past year, versus roughly 21% for the S&P 500. The gain reflects more than AI orders—the company's traditional networking business resumed growth.
Why it matters
AI infrastructure for hyperscalers was only about 6% of revenue in fiscal 2026, up from under 2% in fiscal 2025, but it supplied more than half of the year's above-trend growth. The rest of Cisco grew too: revenue rose 11.8% over trailing twelve months, against a three-year average of 3.8%.
What to watch
Management guides fiscal 2027 revenue growth of roughly 15%. Excluding $7.5 billion of hyperscale AI revenue, the CFO sees the rest of the business near 10% growth. The stock trades about 16% below its 52-week high.
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Cisco's recent stock performance is attributed to more than just its AI-related sales. The company's traditional networking products—switching, routing, and wireless—are all in a refresh cycle simultaneously, a situation management says has not happened before. By fiscal Q4 2026, campus networking product orders were growing 20% year over year, with Wi-Fi 7 accounting for more than half of wireless orders. This broad-based recovery, coupled with price increases on hardware, helped revenue jump 18% in that quarter.
Management's guidance for fiscal 2027 indicates roughly 15% revenue growth, with the non-AI business expected to grow near 10% once the $7.5 billion hyperscale AI revenue is stripped out. The company is deliberately trading some gross margin for revenue, guiding operating margin near 35%, a company high. However, the market remains cautious, as the stock sits about 16% below its 52-week high, and growth implied for later fiscal 2027 is nearer 13% against harder comparisons. Investors will watch whether the company can continue to raise its guidance.
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