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Cisco stock up 64% as core business rebounds

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Cisco stock up 64% as core business rebounds

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock returned about 64% over the past year, versus roughly 21% for the S&P 500. The gain reflects more than AI orders—the company's traditional networking business resumed growth.

  2. Why it matters

    AI infrastructure for hyperscalers was only about 6% of revenue in fiscal 2026, up from under 2% in fiscal 2025, but it supplied more than half of the year's above-trend growth. The rest of Cisco grew too: revenue rose 11.8% over trailing twelve months, against a three-year average of 3.8%.

  3. What to watch

    Management guides fiscal 2027 revenue growth of roughly 15%. Excluding $7.5 billion of hyperscale AI revenue, the CFO sees the rest of the business near 10% growth. The stock trades about 16% below its 52-week high.

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Context & Analysis

Cisco's recent stock performance is attributed to more than just its AI-related sales. The company's traditional networking products—switching, routing, and wireless—are all in a refresh cycle simultaneously, a situation management says has not happened before. By fiscal Q4 2026, campus networking product orders were growing 20% year over year, with Wi-Fi 7 accounting for more than half of wireless orders. This broad-based recovery, coupled with price increases on hardware, helped revenue jump 18% in that quarter.

Management's guidance for fiscal 2027 indicates roughly 15% revenue growth, with the non-AI business expected to grow near 10% once the $7.5 billion hyperscale AI revenue is stripped out. The company is deliberately trading some gross margin for revenue, guiding operating margin near 35%, a company high. However, the market remains cautious, as the stock sits about 16% below its 52-week high, and growth implied for later fiscal 2027 is nearer 13% against harder comparisons. Investors will watch whether the company can continue to raise its guidance.

FAQ
What percentage of Cisco's revenue came from AI infrastructure?
AI infrastructure for hyperscalers made up about 6% of revenue in fiscal 2026, up from less than 2% in fiscal 2025.
How much AI order revenue did Cisco receive in fiscal 2026?
Cisco took $9.3 billion of AI orders from hyperscalers across fiscal 2026, and management expects $7.5 billion of AI infrastructure revenue in fiscal 2027.
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