The author questions whether the AI Safety community has passed the point of no return in controlling AI risks as of early 2026
Despite the pessimistic framing, the author ultimately concludes the answer is 'no' based on Betteridge's Law
Voluntary commitments from AI companies to gate scaling on concrete evaluations appear unlikely to hold as a safety mechanism
The 2024 plan for AI safety, previously outlined in an RSP blog post, is now viewed as significantly less viable
The author plans to explain reasons for pessimism in part 2 while offering more hopeful arguments in a forthcoming part 3
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