Nvidia's quantum play beats pure-play stocks at 7-year valuation low

Quantum computing represents a fundamental departure from classical systems, which process data using binary bits (zeros or ones). Quantum machines instead use qubits, which possess a property called superposition—allowing them to evaluate vast numbers of possibilities simultaneously. This capability holds particular promise for artificial intelligence, where quantum computers could deliver faster answers to complex optimization problems, enhance machine learning, and simulate molecular interactions. According to McKinsey & Company, quantum computing could add up to $2.7 trillion（約430兆円） of value to the global economy by 2035, underscoring the scale of the opportunity as the technology matures from laboratory curiosity toward practical utility.

Three primary publicly traded pure-play quantum companies dominate the landscape. IonQ (IONQ) employs trapped-ion qubits in its quantum systems, which aim to improve AI models and create better data for research purposes. Rigetti Computing (RGTI) uses superconducting qubits to build quantum computers that customers can leverage with existing AI-native tools. Both IonQ and Rigetti offer cloud-based access, seeking integrations with infrastructure providers like Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) has primarily focused on quantum annealing, a niche technology useful only for solving optimization and sampling problems, though those types of problems include real-world applications in logistics, finance, and drug discovery. Across these companies, technology remains heavily research-oriented; while commercial systems and cloud access are expanding, they remain years away from delivering enterprise-grade fault-tolerant machines capable of providing measurable quantum advantage.

The financial reality of pure-play quantum stocks raises serious concerns. Though all are generating some revenues and receiving government subsidies, each continues to post substantial operating losses and has relied on repeated equity raises to fund research and development, resulting in ongoing shareholder dilution. Their valuations reflect extreme speculation rather than concrete fundamentals: IonQ trades at a price-to-sales ratio around 58, while Rigetti and D-Wave both sport P/S multiples near 480. For cash-burning operations whose progress has yet to translate into profitability or self-funding growth, these valuation profiles are described as overextended.

In contrast, Nvidia offers a different angle on quantum computing exposure. Nvidia supplies the classical infrastructure essential to building quantum machines through its CUDA-Q platform, which enables hybrid quantum-classical programming across GPUs, CPUs, and quantum processors. As quantum AI scales up, these systems will increasingly depend on Nvidia's ecosystem for next-generation algorithms that efficiently combine the strengths of classical and quantum computing. Meanwhile, Nvidia's price-to-earnings ratio of 32 is hovering around its lowest level in nearly seven years, suggesting that the potential upsides of quantum computing adoption and continued AI infrastructure expansion are not yet fully reflected in the stock price. This positions Nvidia as a compelling candidate to capture both near-term momentum from data center build-outs and leveraged exposure to longer-term quantum computing advances over the coming decade.

Quantum computing fundamentally differs from classical systems by using qubits—which possess superposition, allowing simultaneous evaluation of vast numbers of possibilities—rather than binary bits. This capability holds particular promise for AI, where quantum computers could deliver faster answers to complex optimization problems, enhance machine learning, and simulate molecular interactions. However, the path from laboratory research to commercial utility remains long and uncertain.

The article identifies a critical valuation disconnect: pure-play quantum stocks (IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave) trade at extreme multiples despite ongoing losses and heavy shareholder dilution. IonQ's price-to-sales ratio around 58 and the 480× P/S multiples for Rigetti and D-Wave reflect speculative pricing rather than concrete fundamentals. These companies have generated some revenue and received government subsidies, but their technology remains heavily research-oriented and years away from enterprise-grade machines. In this context, Nvidia—which supplies the classical infrastructure (via CUDA-Q) essential to hybrid quantum-classical systems—trades at a more defensible valuation: a price-to-earnings ratio of 32 at near its lowest level in seven years. This suggests the market has not yet fully priced in either near-term data center momentum or longer-term quantum adoption, positioning Nvidia as a lower-risk lever on the quantum opportunity.

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