Researcher builds multi-agent AI system to model economic shock from Strait of Hormuz closure — shows $4–$4.41/gallon U.S. gas and 0.12 percentage point inflation hit in one month

A researcher (Anton Krylov) built a custom AI system using eight specialized agents — each analyzing one failure channel (energy markets, shipping, LNG supply, consumer costs, etc.) — to stress-test global economic impact if the Strait of Hormuz (which carries 20.9 million barrels/day, one-fifth of global oil) closes. The agents cross-check each other's claims and feed the strongest evidence into a single report, rather than a human analyst reading papers alone.

The model translates crude-oil shock into consumer pain: a closure lasting one month would push U.S. regular gasoline to $4.01–$4.41/gallon and add 0.12 percentage points directly to CPI inflation, equivalent to a $50/month cost increase for a typical driver. A six-month closure would keep WTI around $98–$115/barrel and reduce global growth by 2.9 percentage points annualized in that quarter.

For business professionals and investors, the model breaks down which countries and industries face the highest stress (energy-reliant economies first, then shipping and insurance sectors), and shows bond-market sensitivity — whether inflation or recession fear would dominate yield moves. For households, it quantifies the gap between official inflation and actual fuel-pump cost: this system turns abstract energy-market risk into a concrete monthly household budget impact.