
What happened
IBM beat Q3 estimates with revenue of $17.1 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.95 per share, but CEO Arvind Krishna said clients worry AI spending is 'completely out of control with no real return.'
Why it matters
Krishna's comment suggests corporate AI budgets may face scrutiny, a signal that could weigh on demand for AI infrastructure and software if clients demand proof of return.
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IBM's quarter looked strong on paper: revenue of $17.1 billion beat the $16.8 billion consensus, adjusted earnings of $2.95 per share topped the $2.86 estimate, and the top line grew 5.9% from a year earlier while earnings rose 11%. The stock initially jumped as much as 7.3% in after-hours trading. But the 5:00 p.m. ET conference call changed the mood. When an analyst asked about corporate IT budgets, CEO Arvind Krishna said clients are 'getting worried if some of the AI spending [is] completely out of control with no real return,' and noted that real implementation requires extensive workflow reengineering: 'It is not a little [robotic process automation] tool that you bolt on, and you get something.' The stock plunged at that moment and was down 4% after hours. The chill spread beyond IBM: Tesla also reported the same night with guidance hinting at cooler data center capital expenditures, and infrastructure names like Nvidia, Oracle, and CoreWeave began falling around 6:00 p.m. ET as the call ended. The episode suggests that even as AI spending remains high, concerns about proof of return are now being voiced by a major enterprise vendor's CEO, which may prompt closer scrutiny of AI budgets.
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