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Big Tech's $740 billion AI spend spooks investors

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Big Tech's $740 billion AI spend spooks investors

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft plan more than $740 billion in capex this year. On Friday the Nasdaq fell 2.9%, Nvidia dropped 4%, Broadcom over 5%, and Qualcomm 11%.

  2. Why it matters

    Investors who once rewarded big AI outlays now worry about negative free cash flow, rising debt, and whether the spending will ever earn enough to justify itself.

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Context & Analysis

The anxiety marks a shift from the early AI boom, when investors largely rewarded big outlays as a sign of confidence in the technology's growth potential. Now, as the fourth quarter begins, that enthusiasm is giving way to concerns about negative free cash flow, mounting debt, and whether these enormous investments will ever generate enough returns.

Alphabet illustrates the tension most clearly. Its Google Search advertising business, which makes up roughly half of its revenue, saw growth slow to 12%, its weakest pace in five quarters, even as the company spends billions on the AI technology that could undermine that very business. Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft face their own versions of the same pressure, with Amazon and Meta both reporting negative free cash flow and Microsoft attributing lower-than-projected capex to delays in capacity from third-party providers.

The money for all this infrastructure is not just coming from profits. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle raised a combined $326 billion in debt in 2026, triple the amount raised last year. That reliance on borrowing could complicate Anthropic's highly anticipated IPO, with Blackstone warning investors the company might not qualify for an investment-grade rating after it goes public.

FAQ
How much are the Big Tech companies spending on AI infrastructure this year?
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have outlined plans to spend more than $740 billion on capital expenditures this year, which Wall Street reads as AI infrastructure spending.
Which company was the exception on free cash flow?
Microsoft recorded $18.6 billion in positive free cash flow in its latest quarter, with capex at $45.2 billion, less than the $50 billion it projected.
What did Blackstone warn about Anthropic's IPO?
The Financial Times reported that Blackstone warned investors Anthropic might not qualify for an investment-grade rating after its IPO, potentially making it more reliant on hyperscalers and third parties to fund its infrastructure.
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