Goldman Sachs sees AI capex reaching $1 trillion in 2026, above the $800 billion consensus.
The bank says estimates miss private and non-U.S. spending.
Nvidia and Qualcomm are positioned to benefit.
What happened
Goldman Sachs predicts AI capital spending will reach about $1 trillion in 2026, higher than the consensus estimate of $800 billion. The bank says most estimates miss investment by private companies and firms outside the U.S., including Asia.
Why it matters
This suggests the AI infrastructure build-out is bigger than expected, benefitting companies with global reach. Nvidia has the industry's leading hardware and is expanding internationally, while Qualcomm gets nearly half of its 2025 revenue from China.
What to watch
Qualcomm expects at least $15 billion in data center revenue by 2029. Nvidia announced more than 40 international partnerships last year, up from 15 the year before, and is on pace to exceed that in 2026.
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The article highlights a potential gap between consensus estimates and Goldman Sachs's view on AI capital spending. Consensus expects around $800 billion this year, but Goldman sees closer to $1 trillion, mainly because many estimates overlook private companies and non-U.S. firms. This discrepancy matters for investors because it suggests the AI build-out is even larger than widely thought.
Nvidia and Qualcomm are presented as two ways to play this trend. Nvidia is the dominant AI hardware maker, with a sticky software platform and a growing international footprint. Qualcomm, on the other hand, offers cheaper exposure with a focus on edge devices and a growing data center business. Both companies benefit from the global expansion of AI infrastructure, though they carry different risks and opportunities.
The article also notes that AI companies are backing their spending with real revenue growth, unlike past tech bubbles. This gives more confidence that the investment wave is sustainable. However, geopolitical risks and a stagnating core business at Qualcomm remain considerations for investors.
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