Marvell Technology beats Astera Labs for 2026, analyst says

The comparison comes as both companies ride demand from hyperscalers expanding cloud capacity for AI, but they sit at different points in the supply chain. Astera Labs specializes in high-speed connectivity hardware and its COSMOS software-defined platform, sold to major cloud providers and AI accelerator vendors. Marvell supplies networking and storage silicon and has increasingly focused on custom silicon and optical interconnects for large-scale AI clusters.

The analyst's preference for Marvell rests partly on valuation and partly on visibility into future sales. The Oct. 6 investor-day forecast of $70 billion to $90 billion in fiscal 2031 sales stands far above the $8.2 billion reported for fiscal 2026. That gap suggests management expects long-term contract wins amid the data center build-out, though it remains a multi-year projection rather than a confirmed result.

Both companies carry customer concentration risk. At Astera Labs, one end customer represented over 70% of revenue in the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2025. At Marvell, one distributor accounted for 37% and one customer for 14% of total net revenue, according to its latest annual report. These concentrations are a layer of risk for either investment case.