What happened
Cerebras Systems and SpaceX both went public in 2026, with Cerebras starting trading on May 14 and SpaceX following on June 12. Cerebras builds wafer-scale AI systems and sells cloud access, while SpaceX operates rockets, Starlink, and an AI segment including the Grok language model.
Why it matters
Cerebras' cloud revenue jumped 287% year over year to $127.7 million in Q2, while total core revenue rose 103.3% to $209.9 million, beating guidance. SpaceX's AI segment posted an operating loss of $1.3 billion, but its profitable Connectivity segment generated $4.3 billion in revenue and $1.7 billion in operating income.
What to watch
Cerebras appears to offer the better five-year risk-reward balance, trading at 14.9 times expected 2027 revenue versus SpaceX's 17.4 times. However, Cerebras faces customer concentration risk, with three customers accounting for 76% of Q2 revenue, and only 22% of its $25.4 billion in RPO is expected to be recognized by June 2028.
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The article compares Cerebras and SpaceX as AI stock picks for the next five years, following their 2026 IPOs. Cerebras benefits from a shift in AI spending toward inference, with Gartner expecting global inference spending to reach $23.3 billion in 2026, overtaking training's $19 billion. Cerebras' growth is rapid, but it carries high risk due to customer concentration and the slow conversion of its RPO into revenue. In contrast, SpaceX leverages its profitable Starlink connectivity business to fund AI expansion, but its AI segment is capital-intensive, consuming $15.8 billion in capex during Q2. The article concludes that Cerebras offers a better risk-reward balance, trading at a lower revenue multiple, despite the higher risk.
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