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Oracle drops 14% after $20 billion raise, but 14x multiple looks cheap

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Oracle drops 14% after $20 billion raise, but 14x multiple looks cheap

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Oracle sold $20 billion of stock and bonds — 86.2 million shares at $116 and $10 billion of notes at 7% to 8.65% — and the stock fell 14% for the week. AI stocks also sank after Amazon reported.

  2. Why it matters

    The raise costs about 3% more shares and roughly $780 million a year in interest, but Oracle targets over $30 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2029, more than twice the consensus.

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Context & Analysis

Oracle's drop came in two parts. The first was self-inflicted: on Oct. 28 it capped new raises through fiscal 2030 at $20 billion, then sold exactly that — 86.2 million shares at $116 and $10 billion of notes — and the stock still fell 9% on the day. The second part was the wider AI trade. Amazon's trailing free cash flow turned to a $42.4 billion outflow on AI spending, and the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 3% on Oct. 30, a day with no Oracle news. CoreWeave, with the same AI exposure and costlier debt, fell 24%.

The funding question is now settled through fiscal 2030, which shifts attention to Oracle's own cash. It targets over $30 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2029, more than twice the consensus. At 14x forward earnings — far under its 21x five-year average — investors are paying as if the buildout won't pay off, which is the basis for the buy call.

FAQ
How much did Oracle raise, and what did it sell?
It sold 86.2 million shares at $116 and $10 billion of notes at 7% to 8.65%, for a total of $20 billion — exactly the amount it had capped new raises at on Oct. 28.
How much will the raise cost Oracle?
About 3% more shares and roughly $780 million a year of interest, or about 55 cents a share at most against fiscal 2028's $11.08.
What do analysts expect for Oracle stock?
The 41 analysts covering Oracle see $235 on average, according to TIKR.
Yahoo Finance AIRead Original Article
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