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TSMC's C.C. Wei: AI chip demand to beat 50% CAGR guide

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TSMC's C.C. Wei: AI chip demand to beat 50% CAGR guide

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    On TSMC's latest conference call, CEO C.C. Wei said AI chip demand is robust and will likely exceed the 50% compound annual growth rate the company had guided for 2024 to 2029.

  2. Why it matters

    If that growth holds, TSMC looks cheap at less than 19 times next year's earnings, roughly the S&P 500's 19.2 times forward earnings.

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Context & Analysis

The argument starts from Anthropic's upcoming IPO, which discusses using multiple types of computing units to boost performance and cut costs. The industry standard is Nvidia's GPU, but specialized chips from Alphabet and Amazon can win on price in some applications, and Anthropic is also starting to source some from AMD when outright performance isn't needed. The point the author draws is that all these units share a common origin: most, if not all, of their chips come out of a Taiwan Semiconductor facility. That is what the author means by calling TSMC a universal AI stock — it does not need to pick the winning chip designer, only to keep selling capacity as the build-out continues. The conference call comment from C.C. Wei is presented as confirmation that this demand will stay elevated. On valuation, the author compares TSMC's less than 19 times next year's earnings with the S&P 500's 19.2 times forward earnings and concludes the market has priced it as an average stock despite faster expected growth. The author discloses positions in several chip and cloud names and calls TSMC a no-brainer investment.

FAQ
What did TSMC's CEO actually say about demand?
Asked for an updated figure on the conference call, C.C. Wei said demand is robust and will likely exceed the 50% compound annual growth rate the company had guided for 2024 to 2029.
How is TSMC valued?
It trades at less than 19 times next year's earnings, while the S&P 500 trades for 19.2 times forward earnings when the next 12 months are used.
Why is TSMC called a universal AI stock?
Because most, if not all, of the chips from the various computing units Anthropic uses come out of a Taiwan Semiconductor facility, so TSMC gets a cut regardless of which unit is bought.
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