S&P cuts Meta's AA- outlook to negative on $135-$145B capex

S&P Global Ratings' decision to keep Meta's AA- rating but shift the outlook to negative places the company's AI spending under a credit lens. Meta now guides full-year capex to $135-$145 billion, a level that has pushed free cash flow into negative territory. S&P framed its concern around 'uncertainty' and questioned Meta's 'ability to monetize its AI investments' relative to peers — a direct comparison that puts Meta's spending efficiency in focus. The agency also set specific thresholds for a downgrade: adjusted debt ratio above 1.0x on a sustained basis, and free cash flow remaining negative past 2028. These conditions suggest S&P will monitor both leverage and cash generation over multiple years, rather than reacting to a single quarter. For Meta, the negative outlook does not change the rating today, but it signals that the agency sees elevated risk in the company's current investment trajectory.