Intel AI revenue surges 59%, but capex hike deflates stock rally

Intel reported second-quarter results that showed it has begun to participate meaningfully in the AI infrastructure boom, yet the market's response was mixed. Data center and AI product revenue surged 59% to $6.3 billion（約1兆円）, while overall revenue climbed 25% to $16.1 billion（約2.6兆円）—the fastest growth Intel has posted in almost 15 years. The gains were driven primarily by server CPUs, where demand increased sequentially and management expects double-digit industry growth both this year and next, with momentum continuing into 2028. Critically, demand for server CPUs continues to far outstrip supply, allowing Intel to raise prices across the board.

Intel's other segments also grew, though with mixed results. Client computing group product revenue rose 13% year over year to $8.9 billion（約1.4兆円）, and total product revenue climbed 28% to $15.1 billion（約2.4兆円）. The foundry business, a key part of Intel's strategy to diversify beyond CPUs, saw revenue surge 31% to $5.8 billion（約9300億円）. However, the foundry segment remains deeply unprofitable, posting a $2.1 billion（約3400億円） operating loss in Q2. Revenue from other businesses sank 33% year over year to $0.7 billion（約1100億円）, largely due to the sale of 51% of Intel's Altera subsidiary.

Profitability metrics improved sharply. Adjusted earnings per share rose from a loss of $0.10 to a profit of $0.42, bolstered by a 1,290 basis-point increase in gross margins to 40.4%. Looking ahead, Intel projected Q3 revenue between $15.8 billion（約2.5兆円） and $16.8 billion（約2.7兆円） with adjusted EPS of $0.38—well ahead of analyst expectations for $15.1 billion（約2.4兆円） in revenue and $0.27 in EPS. Gross margins are projected to be around 41%.

The stock's reaction revealed investor concerns about capital intensity. While shares jumped in after-hours trading on the strong Q2 results, those gains evaporated after management raised 2026 capex guidance from around $17–18 billion to over $20 billion（約3.2兆円）, with 2027 capex expected to be significantly above 2026 levels. This capex hike came even as the company acknowledged that supply constraints will affect Q3 results, with improvements expected toward the end of Q3 and into Q4. The broader market has been punishing AI stocks that announce large capex increases this earnings season, reflecting skepticism about sustainability. Intel's stock has lost about a third of its value from recent highs but remains up over 150% on the year and over 300% in the past 12 months.

Intel's Q2 results mark a turning point: the company is now riding the same AI infrastructure wave that has powered Nvidia and other semiconductor suppliers. Server CPU demand is so tight that Intel can raise prices and still struggle to meet orders, a position Intel had not enjoyed in years. The 59% jump in data center and AI revenue and the company's fastest overall growth in almost 15 years signal that hyperscalers are frantically acquiring whatever server capacity they can find to support agentic AI deployments.

Yet the market's reaction reveals a deeper concern about Intel's true competitive position. The capex increase to over $20 billion（約3.2兆円） in 2026 was meant to signal confidence and expansion, but investors have spent this earnings season punishing AI stocks that announce big capex raises, viewing them as a sign of unsustainable spending or lack of pricing power. Intel's foundry business, despite a 31% revenue jump, is still losing $2.1 billion（約3400億円） per quarter—a massive drag even during a semiconductor boom. The article notes that Intel appears more like "a passenger than one helping to drive the market," suggesting that while demand tailwinds are real, the company is benefiting from external forces (hyperscaler urgency) rather than competitive advantage or innovation of its own.

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