
Dan Ives argues that the AI revolution is still in its early stages—only 15% through its total spending cycle—and that Nvidia remains the leading chip provider with demand outstripping supply by 12-to-1.
Although Nvidia stock has pulled back from its May peak and briefly lost its position as the world's largest company by market cap, Ives sees the company's valuation metrics as attractive and suggests buying on the dip, since early-stage demand for AI infrastructure could drive continued growth.
What happened
Dan Ives, partner at merchant bank Yorkville Ives, told CNBC that the AI revolution is in its "third inning"—meaning early stages—and that only 15% of broader AI spending has occurred so far. He called Nvidia the chip "fueling the AI revolution," and noted that demand for its GPUs outstrips supply by 12-to-1.
Why it matters
Nvidia briefly lost its position as the world's largest company by market cap to Apple before regaining the top spot, but the stock remains below its May peak. If Ives is correct that the AI market is still in early stages, the company's current valuation—with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.9 (the second-lowest among the "Magnificent Seven" stocks) and a PEG ratio of 0.55—may leave room for further gains despite the recent pullback.
What to watch
Ives' 12-to-1 demand-to-supply ratio for Nvidia's GPUs could shift as rivals improve their chips' capabilities and cost-effectiveness. Agentic AI adoption and physical AI (AI operating in the real world) remain in early stages, while multiple companies are racing to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI).
Nvidia stock has retreated from its early May peak and briefly surrendered its position as the world's largest company by market cap to Apple before reclaiming it. Against this backdrop, Dan Ives, a partner and senior managing director at merchant bank Yorkville Ives, made a bullish case for the stock in a recent CNBC interview. Ives framed the AI revolution as being in its "third inning"—a baseball metaphor signaling that the game is still early. He went further, arguing that only 15% of the total spending that will eventually flow into AI infrastructure has been deployed so far, suggesting that if correct, the AI revolution could still be in its first inning. Central to Ives' thesis is Nvidia's dominance: he stated that "there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, and that's Nvidia." While other tech giants have developed AI chips that are widely used, Nvidia is indeed the clear leader in the AI chip market with no obvious end to its dominance in sight. One striking statistic Ives highlighted is that demand for Nvidia's GPUs outstrips supply by 12-to-1, underscoring how constrained the market remains. Supporting Ives' optimism on the stock's valuation, Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.9—the second-lowest among the "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap stocks—and its PEG ratio (price-to-earnings-to-growth, based on Wall Street's five-year earnings projections) is 0.55, a notably low figure. The article notes, however, that risks exist: rivals may improve their chips' capabilities and cost-effectiveness, and the AI boom itself could lose momentum. Still, the author believes Nvidia is unlikely to lose its market-leading position soon and expects that buying the stock on recent dips will prove rewarding, as it has historically.
Dan Ives' "third inning" framing of the AI revolution rests on a specific claim: that only 15% of total AI spending has been deployed so far. This assertion positions Nvidia not as a mature chip vendor but as a supplier in an industry still ramping up infrastructure investment. The 12-to-1 demand-to-supply ratio he cited underscores that constraint—buyers cannot currently get enough GPUs even at premium prices, a situation that historically has supported high valuations for the supplier. However, the article acknowledges that this dynamic faces pressure from rivals developing competing chips and from the possibility that AI adoption growth itself could slow. The author's valuation argument—that Nvidia's forward P/E of 22.9 and PEG ratio of 0.55 leave room for appreciation despite the recent pullback—depends partly on accepting Ives' premise that the market is genuinely early-stage rather than already pricing in the full AI opportunity.
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