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Nvidia Still Early in AI Boom, Says Yorkville Ives—Stock a Buy on Dip

Nvidia Still Early in AI Boom, Says Yorkville Ives—Stock a Buy on Dip

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Dan Ives, partner at merchant bank Yorkville Ives, told CNBC that the AI revolution is in its "third inning"—meaning early stages—and that only 15% of broader AI spending has occurred so far. He called Nvidia the chip "fueling the AI revolution," and noted that demand for its GPUs outstrips supply by 12-to-1.

  2. Why it matters

    Nvidia briefly lost its position as the world's largest company by market cap to Apple before regaining the top spot, but the stock remains below its May peak. If Ives is correct that the AI market is still in early stages, the company's current valuation—with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.9 (the second-lowest among the "Magnificent Seven" stocks) and a PEG ratio of 0.55—may leave room for further gains despite the recent pullback.

  3. What to watch

    Ives' 12-to-1 demand-to-supply ratio for Nvidia's GPUs could shift as rivals improve their chips' capabilities and cost-effectiveness. Agentic AI adoption and physical AI (AI operating in the real world) remain in early stages, while multiple companies are racing to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI).

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Context & Analysis

Dan Ives' "third inning" framing of the AI revolution rests on a specific claim: that only 15% of total AI spending has been deployed so far. This assertion positions Nvidia not as a mature chip vendor but as a supplier in an industry still ramping up infrastructure investment. The 12-to-1 demand-to-supply ratio he cited underscores that constraint—buyers cannot currently get enough GPUs even at premium prices, a situation that historically has supported high valuations for the supplier. However, the article acknowledges that this dynamic faces pressure from rivals developing competing chips and from the possibility that AI adoption growth itself could slow. The author's valuation argument—that Nvidia's forward P/E of 22.9 and PEG ratio of 0.55 leave room for appreciation despite the recent pullback—depends partly on accepting Ives' premise that the market is genuinely early-stage rather than already pricing in the full AI opportunity.

FAQ
How far along is the AI revolution, according to Dan Ives?
Ives said the AI revolution is in its "third inning" and that only 15% of broader AI spending has occurred so far, meaning the market is still in early stages.
What is the demand-to-supply ratio for Nvidia's GPUs?
Demand for Nvidia's GPUs outstrips supply by 12-to-1, though this could change as rivals improve their chips' capabilities and cost-effectiveness.
What is Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio compared to other Magnificent Seven stocks?
Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio is 22.9, the second-lowest among the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, and its PEG ratio is 0.55.
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