NVIDIA shares trade at $210.69 with Wall Street seeing 42% upside to $298.93, though reaching $400 by 2029 would require earnings to roughly double and the stock's valuation multiple to hold near 40x–50x.

What happened

NVIDIA's Data Center revenue hit $75.25 billion（約12兆円） in Q1 FY27, up 92% year over year, and the company trades at a forward P/E of 26x against forward EPS of $8.01. Consensus price target among analysts is $298.93 (95% bullish ratings), but the article's own model is more conservative at $259.98 over the next twelve months, with a five-year bull case landing at $485.63 by 2029.

Why it matters

The stock sits 27% below its 52-week high of $236.26, weighed down by zero China Data Center compute revenue in the current quarter versus $4.6 billion（約7400億円） a year ago, plus insider selling and macro sensitivity. For context, NVIDIA has delivered a 10-year return of 17,968.73%, so investors are judging whether that growth trajectory can persist at a 40x–50x earnings multiple.

What to watch

Reaching $400 by 2029 requires an 89.9% gain from today's price of $210.69, which hinges on three factors staying intact through 2028: Blackwell and Vera Rubin (upcoming GPU products) sustaining pricing power, hyperscaler capex staying elevated, and China headwinds not worsening. A serious AI capex retrenchment would derail the target.