Nvidia projects $4T data center spending by 2030, eyes $20T valuation

Nvidia's $4 trillion（約640兆円） projection for global data center spending by 2030 rests on the company's entrenched position in the AI hardware market. The article notes that Nvidia makes GPUs and supporting products for data centers, and its processors have become the standard for high-performance computing. The company captured the vast majority of the market in the early days of the AI arms race, creating a lock-in effect: once data center operators choose Nvidia, switching becomes costly and difficult, an advantage that compounds as more data centers are built.

The math supporting the $20 trillion（約3200兆円） valuation target is straightforward: if global data center capex grows fivefold (from an estimated $800 billion（約130兆円） in 2026 to $4 trillion（約640兆円） by 2030) and Nvidia maintains its current market share, its revenue and profits would rise proportionally. The article notes that Nvidia would only need to quadruple from its current $5 trillion（約800兆円） market cap to hit $20 trillion（約3200兆円）, meaning the company could actually lose market share and still reach that target—a buffer that suggests the projection is not dependent on Nvidia's dominance remaining unchallenged.

A secondary catalyst lies in China. U.S. export restrictions have largely blocked Nvidia's access to the Chinese market, but recent signals suggest those barriers may be weakening. If restrictions ease and Nvidia regains meaningful sales in China, that growth is currently absent from the company's official guidance, potentially enabling even faster expansion than projected.