Reddit earnings forecast surges on Google licensing talks

Reddit's investment case has shifted to center on two intertwined revenue streams: advertising revenue fueled by user engagement, and data licensing deals driven by the value of its community-generated content for AI training. The latest analyst forecasts—US$0.99 EPS and US$744.94 million quarterly revenue—underscore this pivot, placing execution risk front and center. The ongoing Google licensing negotiations matter because they signal both the near-term potential and the regulatory headwinds (some analysts note concerns about tightening data monetization rules) that could reshape the outlook.

The US$1.0 billion share buyback authorization is notable because it sits against a backdrop of strong reported results and a share price that has already climbed more than 400% since the IPO. If actual Q2 earnings or the Google deal outcome fall short of bullish expectations, the contrast with an active buyback program could force investors to recalibrate their view of both upside and downside. Long-term, Reddit's projections—US$5.6 billion revenue and US$1.9 billion earnings by 2029—require sustained 31.2% yearly revenue growth, a bar that makes the near-term tests (Google talks, Q2 results) critical proof points.