Reddit earnings forecast surges on Google licensing talks

Reddit's near-term narrative is being reshaped by a confluence of surging earnings forecasts and high-stakes data licensing talks with Google. Analysts recently projected the company will post quarterly earnings of US$0.99 per share and revenue of US$744.94 million（約1200億円）, both reflecting very large year-over-year growth. These forecasts highlight how Reddit's mix of community-driven user engagement and monetizable data—especially for AI training—are becoming central to its long-term business strategy.

The Google data licensing standoff is the key near-term swing factor for sentiment and Reddit's negotiating power on future AI-related deals. Alongside these discussions, Reddit authorized a US$1.0 billion（約1600億円） share buyback, a move that sits against a backdrop of strong reported revenue and earnings, and a share price that has already risen more than 400% since the IPO. If actual results or the outcome of the Google talks disappoint relative to analyst expectations, the contrast with an ongoing buyback could amplify how investors reassess both upside and downside risk.

Looking further ahead, Reddit's narrative projects US$5.6 billion（約9000億円） revenue and US$1.9 billion（約3000億円） earnings by 2029. This projection requires 31.2% yearly revenue growth and about a US$1.2 billion（約1900億円） earnings increase from US$707.5 million（約1100億円） today. However, some analysts sound more cautious even while assuming Reddit's earnings could reach about US$1.4 billion（約2200億円） by 2029, citing concerns about tightening data monetization rules. These differing viewpoints highlight the tension between bullish short-term estimates tied to Q2 and longer-term uncertainties around regulatory and competitive pressures on data licensing.

Reddit's investment case has shifted to center on two intertwined revenue streams: advertising revenue fueled by user engagement, and data licensing deals driven by the value of its community-generated content for AI training. The latest analyst forecasts—US$0.99 EPS and US$744.94 million（約1200億円） quarterly revenue—underscore this pivot, placing execution risk front and center. The ongoing Google licensing negotiations matter because they signal both the near-term potential and the regulatory headwinds (some analysts note concerns about tightening data monetization rules) that could reshape the outlook.

The US$1.0 billion（約1600億円） share buyback authorization is notable because it sits against a backdrop of strong reported results and a share price that has already climbed more than 400% since the IPO. If actual Q2 earnings or the Google deal outcome fall short of bullish expectations, the contrast with an active buyback program could force investors to recalibrate their view of both upside and downside. Long-term, Reddit's projections—US$5.6 billion（約9000億円） revenue and US$1.9 billion（約3000億円） earnings by 2029—require sustained 31.2% yearly revenue growth, a bar that makes the near-term tests (Google talks, Q2 results) critical proof points.

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