OpenAI says it will have AGI by end of 2026.
CEO Sam Altman is convinced, and Chief Research Officer Mark Chen estimates the company is 80% of the way there.
The upcoming model Astra already works as an automated research intern, according to the company.
What happened
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told TIME the company will have an internal system he'd call AGI by the end of 2026. Chief Research Officer Mark Chen estimates OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI, according to the report.
Why it matters
The confidence centers on Astra, OpenAI's upcoming model family that already works as an automated AI research intern. Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki said Astra can write code, run experiments, and handle work that would take a human researcher about a week.
What to watch
OpenAI's first device, a puck-shaped voice device, is expected early next year. The company is also ramping up ads inside ChatGPT after early tests performed well, and CFO Sarah Friar noted 92 percent of ChatGPT consumer users don't pay for a subscription.
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The TIME report, based on interviews with over 20 executives, employees, investors, and rivals, presents a company confident it is on the cusp of achieving AGI. This confidence is anchored in Astra, which the article says already hits the internal benchmark of an automated AI research intern. The underlying wager is that such a system could kick off recursive self-improvement, where AI helps make itself better, though the article notes opinions on this are split.
The report also highlights a significant debate over whether AI built purely on language models can truly make new discoveries and generalize, which seems like a basic requirement for AGI. Since the term itself has no precise definition, it's partly a matter of interpretation. Beyond the lofty ambitions, the company faces the mundane problem of paying for it all, which is driving a tighter product focus and experiments with new revenue streams like ads. OpenAI is also working on a "small handful" of devices, with the first, a puck-shaped voice device, expected early next year.
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