NTT CEO 島田明: AI headcount cuts won't grow a shrinking Japan

Shimada's argument starts from demographics rather than technology. Japan's population is projected to fall from about 126 million in 2020 to about 87 million by 2070, a drop of roughly 30%, and he stresses that this means fewer customers as well as fewer workers. In that setting, the usual framing of AI as a way to replace headcount addresses only the labor side of the problem while leaving demand untouched.

The three decisions he sets out are framed as an executive's job, not an IT team's. Deciding what AI takes on and what responsibility stays with people, deciding what to abolish alongside what to build, and deciding where the freed-up capacity goes are presented as linked choices. Shimada warns that leaving the first two vague invites higher costs: faster work at the task level does not reduce total workload if the volume of work stays the same, and bolting AI tools onto unreformed systems adds token and operating expenses to existing maintenance bills.

The session was part of ServiceNow's World Forum 2026 Tokyo, held October 27–28. The framing cites Sushiro parent Skylark and Keyence as reference cases for winning strategies, though the excerpt provided covers only the first section of the piece.