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Nvidia vs. AMD: Nvidia's $318 target implies 88% upside after 26% sell-off

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Nvidia vs. AMD: Nvidia's $318 target implies 88% upside after 26% sell-off

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Nvidia fell 26% and AMD 15% over the past month, yet Nvidia trades at a significantly cheaper valuation, and its median 12-month price target of $318 implies an 88% jump versus AMD's projected 26%.

  2. Why it matters

    That gap suggests the market may reward Nvidia's cheaper multiple with greater upside once the sell-off fades, though AMD's faster earnings growth could still justify its premium.

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Context & Analysis

The sell-off is broad, not company-specific: the PHLX Semiconductor Sector index fell 20% over the past month, and both Nvidia and AMD slid despite solid financial performance. Nvidia's 26% drop cost it its status as the world's largest company, a detail that frames the decline as a market-wide repricing rather than a verdict on either business.

The comparison rests on two different pictures. On growth, AMD looks stronger: its data center revenue rose 97% year over year in Q3 to $8.5 billion, and it expects data center to exceed 80% of its top line in 2027. Nvidia's data center revenue rose 106% to $96.2 billion in the last reported quarter, keeping it far larger, and its Vera Rubin systems are expected to contribute 20% of data center revenue in the third quarter of fiscal 2027.

On valuation, the balance shifts. Nvidia's cheaper multiple and the $318 median price target imply more upside than AMD's 26% projected gain, even though AMD's EPS growth is expected to outpace Nvidia's. The piece lands on Nvidia as the better buy for 2027 while conceding AMD's accelerating growth could justify its premium.

FAQ
How much of the AI chip market does Nvidia control?
Silicon Analysts estimates Nvidia will control 75% of the AI chip market by the end of 2026, while AMD held 6%-8% last year.
Why is Nvidia considered cheaper than AMD?
Nvidia is significantly cheaper than AMD on valuation, which gives Nvidia greater upside potential once the market rewards it with a premium.
What growth is expected for AMD in 2027?
AMD's EPS growth is projected to accelerate from 93% this year to 108% in 2027, per Yahoo! Finance consensus estimates.
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