Nvidia owns 9.3% of Nebius; stock jumps 19% on disclosure

Nvidia's 9.3% stake in Nebius, while disclosed this week through a Schedule 13G filing, formalizes a position investors already knew about since the company's $2 billion（約3200億円） investment announcement. The market's nearly 19% jump on Tuesday reflects investor sentiment toward anything Nvidia endorses rather than new information. What matters is the structure: only 1.2 million of the 22.3 million shares are common stock Nvidia owns outright, with the remainder coming from a pre-funded warrant exercisable at $0.0001 per share but locked until September 11.

Nvidia's stake in Nebius reveals the company's strategic interest in deepening a profitable loop. Nebius buys Nvidia's GPUs and converts them into rentable AI computing capacity, so Nvidia gains a major customer and participates in the upside of Nebius's growth. The $2 billion（約3200億円） bet also signals that Nvidia expects robust ongoing demand for AI infrastructure—a company betting $2 billion（約3200億円） doesn't do so if capacity is going unsold. Nebius's trailing 12-month revenue of about $878 million（約1400億円） and Meta's commitment to spend up to $27 billion（約4.3兆円） on its infrastructure underscore the scale of the opportunity.

Yet the valuation tells a cautionary tale. After Tuesday's jump, Nebius trades at more than 60 times trailing sales, a multiple that assumes years of flawless execution in one of technology's most capital-intensive businesses. The stock's wild swings—trading below $50 within the past year, peaking at $299.86, and now sitting about 28% below that peak—reflect the market's extreme uncertainty about growth trajectories in this segment. Nvidia's passive minority stake (indicated by the Schedule 13G filing) does not guarantee Nebius preferential chip access, cannot ease the company's substantial capital needs, and does not make the valuation cheaper. For shareholders, Nvidia's endorsement is comforting; for investors, it is not a substitute for fundamentals.