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Large Language ModelsAI Business & IndustryFortune AIPublished: Oct 3, 2026, 01:00 JST

Steenbergen: hyperscalers don't know their AI ROI

Steenbergen: hyperscalers don't know their AI ROI

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    At Fortune's AIQ Summit, Booking Holdings CFO Ewout Steenbergen said hyperscalers spending hundreds of billions on large language models "don't really know what is going to be the ROI." He said LLM referrals were under 1% of total room nights.

  2. Why it matters

    Steenbergen's view is that companies using AI models rather than building them face smaller costs, but only if they keep those costs from going out of control. That suggests the payoff may hinge on redesigned processes rather than raw model spending.

  3. What to watch

    The test is whether Booking's internal gains — cheaper customer service and faster engineering — translate into results from its own customer-facing AI tools, which Steenbergen called "very early stage, so it's not a lot of data."

WHO IT HITSCFOs and finance teams at companies buying AI models rather than building them are the ones who need to track token bills and cost per unit of output, as Steenbergen describes Booking doing.

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Context & Analysis

Steenbergen's remarks place Booking on the buyer side of the AI divide he describes: the company uses large language models rather than building them, which he suggested keeps its costs lower than those of the hyperscalers. That framing fits the internal numbers he cited — customer service costs slightly down while bookings rose at a high-single-digit rate, and engineering output up about 30% in code reaching production. The customer-facing side is far less developed: LLM referrals, paid and unpaid, were under 1% of total room nights as of the company's Q2 call in August.

Booking's answer to controlling costs is a routing system that sends simple tasks to basic and open-source models and complex ones to pricier models, with engineering groups judged on total IT cost per merge request rather than token spend alone. Steenbergen also described a shift from experimentation over the past two years toward rebuilding processes "from a white sheet." He said AI would change how travelers plan and book, not how travel itself happens, and pointed to the "connected trip" idea of managing disruptions across a journey.

Where this leads depends on whether Booking's modest early gains in its own apps — slightly faster booking, slightly higher conversion, slightly fewer cancellations — hold up as data accumulates. Steenbergen's own use of an "AI coach" and two agents suggests he expects leaders to demonstrate the tools they ask their organizations to adopt. For finance chiefs at companies buying rather than building models, his caution about costs going out of control is likely to land as the more actionable point.

FAQ
How much does Booking spend on paid channels?
Booking spends $8 billion to $9 billion a year on paid channels such as search, social media and metasearch sites, Steenbergen said. About one-third of its customers arrive through those channels.
How does Booking keep AI spending in check?
Booking uses what Steenbergen called "effective model cost routing," assigning basic and open-source models to simple tasks and more expensive models to complex ones. Engineering groups are measured on total IT cost per merge request, combining human and AI-token costs.
What AI tools does Steenbergen use himself?
He said he has an "AI coach" and two agents: a "strategic thought partner" for board presentations and strategic plans, and a "critical equity research agent" for earnings call prep.

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