China's sway over African youth surges to 95%, survey finds

The Ichikowitz Family Foundation released its African Youth Survey 2026 on Wednesday, revealing a sharp realignment of young African opinion toward global powers. The survey polled 4,901 respondents aged 18–24 across 16 nations spanning West Africa (Chad), East Africa (Kenya), and Southern Africa (Zimbabwe, South Africa, and others).

China leads decisively in perceived positive influence, with 95% of respondents viewing its role favorably. The United States follows at 85%, but has lost ground relative to its standing two years prior. Russia has made the most dramatic gains, climbing to 83% favorability from 68% in 2024—a 15-point jump in just two years. The foundation's statement attributed China's growing advantage partly to "the return of the Trump administration" and noted that "perceived influence from China and India has grown since 2024, with China increasingly viewed as a more favorable partner than the U.S."

Geographic variation is significant. South Africa emerged as the most skeptical of U.S. influence, with only 58% of youth viewing the country positively. The foundation attributed this partly to South Africa's adversarial history with the Trump administration. Almost three-quarters of South African respondents said their leaders needed to stand up to Trump. Continent-wide, nearly three-fifths of those surveyed believed the U.S. would disregard international law to win access to natural resources.

Russia's gains concentrated in strategically important regions. In Burkina Faso, where Russia has provided military assistance against Islamist militants, 95% of respondents viewed its influence as positive. Since the start of its 2022 war against Ukraine, Russia has aggressively courted African nations through cultural centers and diplomatic deepening, though it has also been accused of recruiting African fighters for its military and workers for its drone factories. The survey was conducted against a backdrop of intensifying competition for Africa's mineral riches, driven by Trump's tariffs, European and Middle Eastern conflicts, and the reconfiguration of global supply chains.

The survey captures a pivotal moment in great-power competition for African influence. China's 95% favorability among African youth reflects not only its long-standing investment strategy and resource partnerships, but also a growing perception that Beijing is a more reliable partner than Washington—a sentiment the Ichikowitz Family Foundation explicitly links to the Trump administration's return and its unpredictable trade and foreign policy stance. Russia, meanwhile, has leveraged military cooperation and cultural diplomacy since 2022 to recover lost ground; its 83% favorability in 2026, up from 68% in 2024, concentrates especially heavily in countries facing Islamist insurgencies where Moscow has provided direct support.

The backdrop is material and strategic. As Trump's tariffs force supply-chain reconfiguration and conflicts in Europe and the Middle East disrupt energy and commodity flows, Africa's mineral wealth has become a focal point for all three powers. Young Africans—the survey's focus—are forming their geopolitical views in this context of renewed competition, and their perception that the U.S. may disregard international law to secure resources underscores a credibility gap for Washington. South Africa's particularly low U.S. favorability (58%) and its youth's call for leaders to resist Trump suggest that regional grievances and institutional memory of adversarial relations compound this broader shift.