How many American workers could lose jobs due to AI?

Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs estimated that up to 9% of the American labor force—roughly 15 million workers—could be displaced during the decadelong AI transition, concentrated in cognitive, routine white-collar jobs. Briggs said he believes the transition will be temporary and AI will create many more new jobs than it destroys over the long term.

Why is American anxiety about AI different from other countries?

A survey of 24,000 adults across 30 countries found that citizens of nearly every other nation view AI more favorably than Americans. Kedrosky attributes this to the structure of the American labor market: in the United States, losing your job means losing your income and health coverage simultaneously, often for an entire family, whereas in Norway job loss means receiving roughly 67% of your previous wages, in France 66%, and in Germany 60%.

Did the AI industry contribute to the backlash?

Krugman argues the industry largely manufactured the backlash. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei declared in a widely circulated interview that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 20% within five years, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman promoted similarly apocalyptic visions—a strategy Krugman says was meant to dazzle investors and terrify businesses into rapid adoption.

Large Language ModelsFortune AIJun 26, 2026Jun 26, 2026, 19:01 JST3 min read

AI industry's perception crisis runs deeper than messaging, economists warn

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Key takeaway

Three prominent economists and investors published simultaneous warnings Thursday that the AI industry faces a perception crisis that cannot be fixed with better messaging.
The backlash stems not from misinformation but from rational American anxiety about job displacement, worsened by a labor market that ties health insurance to employment—a structural vulnerability that other wealthy nations do not share.
Goldman Sachs estimates up to 15 million American workers could be displaced during the AI transition, and critics argue the industry has both created the crisis through apocalyptic messaging and chosen not to invest in tools that would complement rather than replace workers.

3 Key Points

What happened
On Thursday, Mark Cuban, economist Paul Kedrosky, and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman each published separate critiques arguing that public backlash against AI is not driven by misinformation or technophobia, but by rational concerns about job displacement and the structure of American labor protections. Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs estimated that up to 9% of the American labor force—roughly 15 million workers—could be displaced during the decadelong AI transition, concentrated in white-collar jobs.
Why it matters
Krugman argues the industry largely created the backlash by having executives declare that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 20% within five years—a strategy meant to dazzle investors and drive adoption. Kedrosky's research shows that American pessimism about AI cuts across education and politics and correlates instead with job loss consequences: losing a job in the United States means losing both income and health coverage simultaneously, whereas in Norway, France, and Germany, job loss typically includes income replacement of 60–67%. This structural vulnerability makes AI anxiety a rational response, not a communication problem.
What to watch
Cuban calls for tech companies to invest billions in community support and artist funds in affected towns, but Kedrosky's analysis suggests that without deeper changes to unemployment insurance and health care decoupling from employment, such measures alone would not resolve the underlying condition. Acemoglu notes the industry has the technical capacity to build tools that complement rather than replace workers, but is choosing not to—a fork in the road that will shape labor outcomes over the next 10 to 15 years.

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FAQ

How many American workers could lose jobs due to AI?: Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs estimated that up to 9% of the American labor force—roughly 15 million workers—could be displaced during the decadelong AI transition, concentrated in cognitive, routine white-collar jobs. Briggs said he believes the transition will be temporary and AI will create many more new jobs than it destroys over the long term.
Why is American anxiety about AI different from other countries?: A survey of 24,000 adults across 30 countries found that citizens of nearly every other nation view AI more favorably than Americans. Kedrosky attributes this to the structure of the American labor market: in the United States, losing your job means losing your income and health coverage simultaneously, often for an entire family, whereas in Norway job loss means receiving roughly 67% of your previous wages, in France 66%, and in Germany 60%.
Did the AI industry contribute to the backlash?: Krugman argues the industry largely manufactured the backlash. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei declared in a widely circulated interview that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 20% within five years, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman promoted similarly apocalyptic visions—a strategy Krugman says was meant to dazzle investors and terrify businesses into rapid adoption.

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