Oil prices fall sharply as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with the IEA warning of a potential supply glut next year while OPEC disputes the forecast.

What happened

Benchmark crude prices dropped more than 25% over the past month and were largely flat around $80 a barrel on Friday. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after months of closure is expected to release millions of barrels of previously stranded oil shipments, and technical trading indicators point to further price declines.

Why it matters

The IEA projected 'a significant overhang emerging next year' as shipping through the strait rebounds, suggesting an oversupply of oil could weigh on prices. OPEC, however, told CNBC that the IEA's projection was 'not really based on facts and figures,' indicating disagreement between major forecasters on how much additional supply will actually enter the market.

What to watch

Oil benchmark prices currently around $80 a barrel; the IEA's projection applies to next year, so the pace and volume of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be critical to whether the supply glut actually materializes.