SpaceX $1,000 could hit $2,260 by 2029, or fall to $810

SpaceX's story is shifting from pure rocketry to a mix of aerospace, telecommunications, and AI, framing that diversification as the basis for its 2029 valuation cases. Starlink's recurring subscription revenue from 13.6 million customers, nearly double a year earlier, is presented as the anchor of that shift, while the Super Intelligence segment's roughly $7.6 billion in third-quarter revenue, up over nine times year over year, shows how quickly the AI build-out is scaling.

The offset is spending. Third-quarter capital expenditures totaled around $19.6 billion, with AI infrastructure taking the largest share, and if returns on these investments take too long to materialize, cash flow could come under pressure. That tension between heavy investment and earnings growth is what the three scenarios are meant to capture, with the current price-to-sales ratio of about 54 leaving room for the multiple to compress as revenue scales.