US programmer hiring growth cut in half since ChatGPT launched — Federal Reserve study finds 500,000 fewer jobs than expected

THE DECODER · April 25, 2026

AI Summary

•Before ChatGPT launched in November 2022, programming jobs in the US were growing at under 5% per year. Since then, growth has dropped sharply — in IT services and software development sectors, hiring has essentially flatlined. A Federal Reserve study analyzing US employment data found that even after accounting for industry-wide tech slowdowns, programmer employment is falling by about 3 percentage points per year compared to what would be expected.
•The study estimates roughly 500,000 programmer jobs probably would have been created over three years without large language models (AI systems trained on text), but the authors caution this may not mean job losses — many would-be programmers likely moved into adjacent roles where AI now handles some programming tasks. Programmer wages have not dropped, and job postings for software developers have stabilized or slightly increased since early 2024 after falling sharply in 2022–2023.
•The slowdown hit hardest in IT service providers — companies that build software on contract for other businesses — which employ about 40% of all US programmers. The gap between actual and expected employment didn't appear until mid-2024, roughly 1.5 years after ChatGPT improved, suggesting companies took time to see AI capabilities improve before changing hiring plans.

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