Elon Musk's OpenAI lawsuit heads to trial April 28, 2026 with prediction markets pricing his odds of winning at 45%

Jury selection began Monday in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, with opening statements expected Tuesday. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers narrowed the case by dismissing fraud charges but allowed the case to proceed on charitable-trust and unjust-enrichment claims. Testimony from Sam Altman, Ilya Sutskever, Satya Nadella, and potentially Musk himself is anticipated to start as early as Tuesday.

Prediction market Kalshi traders have repriced the outcome contract multiple times as evidentiary rulings shift — odds climbed to about 60% after sealed materials became public in earlier phases, then dropped to the mid-30% range by mid-March after the judge eliminated what traders called the strongest contract-based claim. The current 45% odds reflect uncertainty about whether the remaining claims (breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment) are easier or harder to prove than fraud allegations.

For business professionals and investors tracking AI governance: the trial outcome will test whether OpenAI's 2019 transition from nonprofit to a for-profit structure — a move Musk argues betrayed the company's original mission — constitutes actionable legal harm. A Musk win could set precedent on fiduciary obligations in AI company restructures; an OpenAI win reinforces that nonprofit-to-profit pivots are legally defensible, potentially affecting how other AI startups manage their governance transitions.