Bank of England pegs AI productivity gain at just 0.5%

The Bank of England's finding sits alongside a striking split: AI-related activity accounts for nearly a fifth of UK GDP growth since the start of 2026, yet the Bank attributes most of that to companies building and deploying AI rather than to businesses becoming more productive by using it. That distinction matters because it separates spending on AI from the efficiency gains that spending is supposed to buy. The productivity estimate of about 0.5% over three years, or 0.1-0.2pp of annual growth, is consistent with the observation that AI-heavy sectors have not exceeded their pre-pandemic productivity trends.

On the labour side, the agents' survey points to a quieter adjustment than outright cuts. Firms adopting AI are becoming less likely to hire or replace departing staff, but no more likely to actively fire workers — a pattern in which headcount shrinks through attrition rather than layoffs, though the Bank's survey does not quantify the scale.

Taken together, the report suggests the UK's AI story so far is one of investment and deployment rather than a measurable step-change in how much output each worker produces, at least on the three-year view the Bank presents.