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AI growth could make these 2 S&P 500 stocks decade-long buys

AI growth could make these 2 S&P 500 stocks decade-long buys

Key takeaway

  • If AI boosts economic growth, Visa and Mastercard could be strong buys.

  • They already process $30 trillion in payments.

  • Both are preparing for AI agents and stablecoins.

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    The article argues that if AI leads to unprecedented economic growth, Visa and Mastercard are once-in-a-decade buying opportunities, given their control over the payments layer and their work on agentic payments and stablecoins.

  2. Why it matters

    In a bullish scenario where U.S. GDP grows at 6.7% annually instead of the past 10-year rate of 5.7%, the economy would be 91% bigger in a decade, driving more payment volume and fees for Visa and Mastercard. They processed $30 trillion in combined annualized total payment volume in their latest fiscal quarters.

  3. What to watch

    Visa's Intelligent Commerce Connect and Mastercard's Agent Pay are platform solutions for AI transactions, and both companies are integrating stablecoins into their infrastructures, positioning them to benefit if agentic payments take off.

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Context & Analysis

The article builds its case on the scale of AI infrastructure spending, citing Nvidia's projection of $3 trillion to $4 trillion in related spending per year by the end of this decade. This spending boom has already benefited companies like Nvidia, whose shares have surged 934% in five years. However, the author argues that the real opportunity lies in the knock-on effects on the broader economy, particularly in payments.

If AI accelerates U.S. GDP growth to 6.7% annually, the economy would grow 91% in a decade, exceeding the 74% cumulative gain of the past 10 years. Visa and Mastercard, as payment networks, would capture incremental fees from higher spending. Their existing scale—$30 trillion in combined annualized payment volume—gives them a strong base, and their early moves into agentic payments and stablecoins could extend their dominance.

The threat from stablecoins is acknowledged, but the article argues that Visa and Mastercard's deep relationships with financial institutions, merchants, and consumers create network effects that stablecoins lack. Both companies are also integrating stablecoins into their infrastructure, suggesting they are adapting rather than being disrupted. The overall thesis is that these two stocks offer a grounded way to benefit from AI's economic upside, even if the technology's ultimate impact remains uncertain.

FAQ

What annual GDP growth rate does the article use for the bullish scenario?
The article uses a 6.7% annual growth rate, compared with the 5.7% rate over the past 10 years.
What are Visa and Mastercard doing about AI agents?
Visa has Intelligent Commerce Connect, and Mastercard has Agent Pay, both platform solutions to enable AI transactions.
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