Burry bets on Micron, Nebius drops by June 2027

Burry's reputation rests on spotting a gap between real risk and market-priced risk — the subprime mortgage trade being the clearest example. He now applies the same lens to AI, arguing that securities tied to a handful of big tech companies, which act as customers, vendors and financiers to one another, do not deserve their low-risk pricing.

The trigger for his move was an Ares Management article on the interconnectedness of the AI trade. It argued that AI revenue must support the capital expenditures the industry has committed to, and that the market prices a shift in that spending at extremely low probability. Burry's response was to shorten his timeline and shift into put options on Micron and Nebius, two companies he sees as directly exposed to any capital spending slowdown.

Micron's earnings depend on data center memory demand outpacing supply, while Nebius charges a premium for compute capacity that would shrink if demand falls. Both bets hinge on whether an event slows spending soon — a slowdown, not necessarily a reduction, would be enough. The June 2027 expirations suggest Burry sees these two as early warning signs for the wider AI trade.