SpaceX's $120.5 billion Anthropic compute bet revealed in prospectus

The relationship between SpaceX and Anthropic came into sharper focus with Anthropic's prospectus, released Monday. SpaceX's own S-1 earlier this year had outlined a May agreement of $1.25 billion a month for approximately 325,000 Nvidia GPUs. The new filing describes agreements entered into and amended between May and October 2026, with maximum compute spending of $120.5 billion over terms extending into 2029. Aggregate monthly fees reach approximately $3.1 billion once all capacity is delivered, expected in December, though fees differ during the ramp period. Evercore ISI analyst Kutgun Maral points out that the new monthly figure is almost 2.5 times the original rate. Maral calculates that at the full run rate, Anthropic would represent a larger share of SpaceX's revenue than previously expected, and notes that while this does not appear to be a near-term revenue risk given Anthropic's compute constraints and $131.7 billion of liquidity, it raises the question of how dependent SpaceX is on a single tenant. Anthropic's own financial picture, meanwhile, shows first-half 2026 revenue surging to $16.3 billion from $1.1 billion a year earlier, alongside an $80.7 billion first-half net loss — a signal of aggressive AI spending. Investment bankers are reportedly aiming for a listing valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, and Anthropic could debut on public markets before the end of November.