What happened
Tesla raised its full-year capital spending estimate to $25 billion（約4兆円） from $20 billion（約3.2兆円）. The company is investing in a lithium refinery, LFP battery factory, Cybercab production facility, Tesla Semi production, a Megafactory for battery storage, and converting retired Model S and Model X lines to produce Optimus robots. Tesla is also part of the Terafab joint venture with SpaceX to build a semiconductor facility.
Why it matters
Tesla is embedding AI into physical products—Cybercab (its robotaxi) and Optimus (its humanoid robot)—rather than just selling cars. Both rely on full self-driving (FSD) software and vision-based AI. The company's future revenue will likely shift from EVs to recurring income from robotaxi ride-share and robot-as-a-service, which Wall Street analysts see as almost 13% of revenue by 2028. What Tesla builds this year determines whether it can scale these new businesses.
What to watch
Tesla plans to release FSD v15, which incorporates large-model AI architecture, sometime in late 2026 or early 2027. CEO Elon Musk stated this version is necessary before moving to large-scale unsupervised FSD. This milestone will signal whether the company can move from development to broad deployment of its robotaxi service.
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