An opinion piece argues that the AI sector's heavy reliance on investor subsidies creates bubble risk—and that if it pops, the shock could spread across the financial system much like the dot-com crash did.

What happened: The author outlines how AI capital investment is likely to be between $750 billion（約120兆円） and a trillion dollars this year, and that just seven stocks linked to AI now comprise a third of the stock market. The piece warns that AI firms remain costly to operate due to electricity and hardware expenses, and their business case depends on continued investor subsidies rather than demonstrated customer value.

Why it matters: If AI companies fail to deliver measurable returns—lowering costs or raising revenue—their revenues won't match the multi-trillion dollar promises behind current valuations. The stock market is close to $80 trillion（約13000兆円）, roughly twice what it was at the peak of the tech bubble. A fall back to long-term average could cut roughly $300,000 per household of paper wealth from balance sheets, according to cited analysis. When a sector leading financial markets falters, shocks can spread across the economy through what economists call contagion—affecting balance sheets at universities, institutions, and others who hold equity stakes.

What to watch: The piece points to the dot-com era as the most relevant historical analogy for how such a crash might unfold and reshape governance. It also notes that stock market drawdowns of 50% or more are historically common, though a 25% decline alone was enough political pressure to cause a recent policy reversal. The broader question is whether current AI investments will be able to generate returns that justify their valuations once subsidies end.