Workflow, not model: the $22.6 billion AI moat bet

Sagie opens with a thought experiment: two AI assistants perform equally well in demos, but six months later only one handles policy renewals inside the insurer's systems, follows approval rules and escalates exceptions. Replacing that one would mean changing how the company operates — which he calls the moat.

Three recent transactions are tied to that logic. Schneider Electric's agreement to acquire PTC for approximately $22.6 billion in equity value would put it inside customer decisions across a product's lifecycle, while the Synopsys–OpenAI partnership combines frontier AI with established chip-design tools under licensing and revenue sharing. ServiceNow's acquisition of Moveworks, which had 5.5 million employee users at completion, is framed as buying a path into workflows spanning IT, HR and other functions.

For Sagie, integration alone offers limited protection. The diligence test he proposes is whether customers depend on the product, whether those relationships survive a transaction, and whether the combined offering delivers measurable improvements — with acquiring the right position inside customer operations cast as a route to durable growth.