Meta's Muse hits 10.8M downloads; Oppenheimer eyes AI ROI

Muse's early traction is strong enough that Oppenheimer is telling clients investors now want to see the financial payoff. UBS analysts note the assistant has held the top spot on the iOS App Store since Sept. 28, which suggests a user base building fast enough that its running cost has become a topic of its own. The analysts estimate that cost at $14 to $35 per user per year, citing SemiAnalysis.

The scale question is what makes the upcoming numbers worth watching. The analysts lay out two paths for Muse to add 15% to the 2028 consensus EBIT estimate: around $960 billion of gross merchandise value at a 5% take rate, or 96 million paying subscribers at an 80% margin. They also flag that Muse usage could feed data for targeted advertising, though they say that upside is hard to quantify.

Meta gives formal guidance on expenses in Q4, but the analysts expect the company to address Muse costs in more detail on the earnings call, which they say should lead to an EPS estimate reset. Meta reports Q3 results after market-close on Oct. 21.